The United Kingdom is set to experience its third summer heatwave, with yellow heat health alerts now in effect across central, southern, and eastern England. Temperatures are predicted to reach up to 34C (93F) this weekend, prompting authorities to issue warnings about potential impacts on vulnerable populations and health services.
This prolonged period of hot weather is expected to be the most widespread and persistent of the year so far. All four nations of the UK are anticipated to meet their respective heatwave criteria, with some areas potentially experiencing five to six consecutive days of high temperatures.
High Pressure to Bring Scorching Temperatures
The prevailing weather pattern is dominated by an area of high pressure across the UK, which is allowing for increased sunshine. As this system moves eastward, winds will shift to draw warmer air from continental Europe, driving temperatures upward.
By Thursday and Friday, parts of England and Wales could see temperatures climbing into the low thirties Celsius. Scotland and Northern Ireland are also in for a warm spell, with highs expected between 24C (75F) and 27C (81F).
The heat is forecast to intensify over the weekend, with southern England and the Midlands potentially reaching 33C (91F) to 34C (93F). However, coastal areas in the east may experience slightly cooler conditions due to onshore breezes from the North Sea.
Northern Ireland could reach up to 27C (81F), while Scotland may see temperatures as high as 30C (86F). This contrasts with earlier heatwaves this summer, which were primarily concentrated in the south and east of England. However, it is unlikely that the year’s highest temperature of 35.8C (96.4F), recorded on July 1st, will be surpassed.
The increasing humidity accompanying the heat is also expected to lead to warm and muggy nights, potentially making sleep uncomfortable for many. The UK Health Security Agency has issued yellow alerts, advising caution for vulnerable individuals and health services.
The dry conditions associated with this heatwave are a growing concern. Several regions are already facing water restrictions, with Yorkshire implementing a hosepipe ban on Friday. Thames Water has also indicated that further restrictions may be necessary if the water shortage does not improve.
This pattern of hot and dry weather mirrors conditions across much of western and southern Europe, where wildfires have been reported in southern France, Greece, and Spain. Scientific analysis suggests that climate change is significantly increasing the frequency and severity of such heatwaves. Research from Climate Central indicates that the current high temperatures predicted for the UK have been made three to five times more likely due to climate change. Furthermore, Met Office data reveals that all of the UK’s ten warmest years on record have occurred since 2000, with five in the last decade alone.
Heatwave Duration and Outlook
This heatwave is notable not only for its widespread nature but also for its anticipated duration. High temperatures are expected to persist into Monday, particularly in the southern and eastern parts of the country.
Looking ahead, a weather front approaching from the west is forecast to bring cooler conditions, with outbreaks of rain and potential thunderstorms. The longer-term forecast remains uncertain, with some models predicting a return to near 30C temperatures by the end of next week, while others suggest a shift towards more unsettled weather. For the most up-to-date information, users are encouraged to consult the BBC Weather app and the monthly outlook.