‘Mass Casualty Event’ Fears Mount at Notting Hill Carnival Amid Safety Concerns and Staffing Shortages

The Metropolitan Police Service (Met) are voicing serious concerns about potential safety risks at this year’s Notting Hill Carnival, citing the possibility of a ‘mass casualty event’ due to escalating crowd density issues. The anxieties stem from several incidents reported during previous years, prompting calls for a comprehensive review by the London Assembly’s Police and Crime Committee.

Susan Hall AM, chair of the committee, highlighted “a number of incredibly worrying incidents with crowd density” at the festival, raising questions about the Met’s ability to effectively maintain public safety and respond swiftly to any emergencies. The committee has recommended that the Mayor of London conduct a thorough assessment of ‘pinch points’ along the 5.6km route in north Kensington – a tradition spanning over half a century – and establish clear guidelines for staffing levels, specifically the number of stewards required to manage the anticipated two million visitors.

The Carnival presents a significant policing challenge due to its scale and unique cultural significance. In 2024, approximately 7,000 Met officers were deployed, representing around 14,000 officer shifts across the event’s two days. However, Assistant Commissioner Matt Twist expressed his primary worry regarding crowd management, stating that ‘the thing that worries me most is the crowd density and the potential for a mass casualty event.’

The committee’s report also underscores a broader issue impacting the Met: increased public order demand in central London isn’t being adequately supported by government funding. Officers specializing in public order are increasingly withdrawing from regular duties due to demanding weekend shifts, impacting neighbourhood policing services and relying on ‘abstraction,’ where officers are temporarily pulled from their standard roles to assist with Carnival operations.

The tragedy of past Carnivals is a key factor driving these concerns. In 2023, two individuals – Cher Maximen, a 32-year-old mother, and Mussie Imnetu, 41, visiting from Dubai – were fatally attacked during the event. The committee emphasizes that the Met’s duty to protect visitors is paramount, arguing it should not be replaced by a lack of adequate stewarding provided by organizers.

The Notting Hill Carnival Ltd. employs ‘experts from all areas of event organization’ and utilized 3,300 stewards in 2024. However, the committee’s findings suggest that these resources may not be sufficient to mitigate the inherent risks associated with such a large-scale public gathering. The report highlights a continuing strain on London’s police force due to increased demand for public order policing beyond Carnival events.

The Notting Hill Carnival takes place annually over the August Bank Holiday weekend, and is an important celebration of Caribbean culture and history in west London.