Forest’s Counterintuitive Rise: How Low Possession is Fueling European Ambitions

The iconic words of Brian Clough – ‘If God had wanted us to play football in the clouds, he’d have put grass up there’ – take on a new resonance at Nottingham Forest this season. While traditionalists might scoff, the Reds are defying convention by prioritizing a relentlessly aggressive, low-possession style that’s catapulting them into contention for European football. On Monday, they delivered a stunning 2-1 victory over Tottenham Hotspur, achieving this feat despite controlling just 30% of the ball during the match. This statistic reflects a season-long trend – Forest consistently sits at the bottom of Premier League averages for possession. However, this seemingly counterintuitive approach is proving remarkably effective.

Manager Nuno Espírito Santo has instilled a clear tactical identity: a high press designed to win the ball quickly and efficiently. “We have a clear way to play,” Santo stated after the Tottenham win. “When we found ourselves in our identity, we had goals [against Tottenham], but also they created chances in the second half and we had to hold on to what we had.” This isn’t simply about denying possession; it’s about transforming turnovers into immediate attacking opportunities. Forest players, spearheaded by impressive ball carriers like Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi, relentlessly probe for weaknesses in opposition defenses.

The team’s clinical finishing has complemented their tactical approach, scoring two goals from three attempts on target against Tottenham – a testament to their ability to capitalize on these quick transitions. Furthermore, Forest are remarkably resilient when they take the lead, having not lost a match while holding a 2-0 advantage since October 2023. This defensive solidity is underpinned by an impressive statistical performance: they’ve conceded just 39 goals in 33 games this season and currently rank among the top teams for clearances, headed clearances, interceptions, tackles, and saves.

Matz Sels’ outstanding goalkeeping has been a crucial component of this success; he leads the league with 13 clean sheets. Interestingly, their opponents are often forced to unleash a barrage of shots against them, yet Forest consistently frustrate attacks by limiting space and forcing errors.

But is this approach sustainable? The Premier League is evolving, and many teams prioritize possession-based football. Yet, Nottingham Forest’s success demonstrates that winning the ball high up the pitch and then relentlessly attacking can be a highly effective strategy. They are currently the first team in the Premier League to secure a top-four finish with an average possession rate of less than 50%, surpassing even Leicester City’s historic 2015-16 title win (42.4%) and Everton’s 2004-05 season (48.5%). This season, Forest have scored first in 24 Premier League matches – more than any other team – a statistic that highlights their proactive approach and ability to seize control of games. The Reds’ remarkable journey shows that sometimes, the most unconventional tactics can yield extraordinary results.